Calculating the number of copies to order for the first printing of a new book is a complex business decision involving several factors and variables. To determine the optimal first print order, you should understand financial concepts, publishing procedures and practices, and perhaps most importantly, your customers and marketplace. No one "lock step" formula for selecting the number of copies in the first printing will be right for you; however, certain key factors will affect your decision. As you contemplate the number of copies to order, consider these factors:

1. Sales Forecast for the Book
2. Prepublication Sales
3. Subsidiary Rights Sales/Special Sales
4. Marketing/Promotion Sales
5. Co-Publishing Plans
6. Level of Confidence
7. Cost-of-Capital
8. Storage Space Availability/Cost
9. Economic Quantity Order/Unit Cost
10. Reprinting/Turnaround

1. Sales Forecast for the Book

Your sales forecast is an important document in selecting the number of copies to order. A sales forecast is your best estimate of the number of units you will sell over a given period of time (usually a year.)

When estimating sales, also keep in mind the number of complimentary copies in addition to sales copies. Publishers must distribute a number of review copies for publicity and promotion purposes. The number of copies will vary from publisher to publisher. The idea is to budget for complimentary copies and, then, to include that number in the order for the first printing. Note that educational publishers need to distribute a large number of free copies to promote a new textbook. Once the textbook is launched, the publisher provides complimentary desk copies to adopters. The promotional copies and the desk copies can quickly add up to thousands of copies. If you are publishing an introductory textbook aimed at a large enrollment course, you may give away 5,000 to 6,000 copies during the first year. For a trade or professional book, 200 to 300 copies may not be unusual.

2. Prepublication Sales

All committed prepublication sales should be factored into the number of copies ordered. Smart publishers realize that the greater the committed prepublication sales, the lower the risk and the investment for the first print order. Any opportunity to secure prepublication sales from individual purchasers or from organizations (bulk orders) should be pursued by offering a financial incentive. Prepublication sales enhance your cash flow. Successful publishers collect enough cash through prepublication sales to pay in full their printing bill. This is an excellent way to reduce the inherent risk in book publishing.

3. Subsidiary Rights Sales/Special Sales

Subsidiary sales are the sale of publication rights into a market other than the primary market: for example, book-club rights. In the traditional book-club/publisher model, the book-club order will be included in your first printing. The book-club commitment will allow you to increase the number of copies in the first printing and, thereby, reduce the unit manufacturing cost.

Special sales are sales outside of your normal and customary marketing channels. If you are a direct mail publisher selling to professionals, your normal channel would be direct mail; the sale of books in bulk to associations, government, training organizations, or other purchasers are special sales. You need to analyze the potential for special sales in your first print order.

4. Marketing/Promotion Plans

You should have a "standard" promotional plan for each book. For the first print order of a new book, however, take into consideration publicity plans over and above your traditional marketing. Whether you have strong, average, or a weak program, you should factor in your subjective analysis as to how your marketing plans will affect sales and print run. For example, if you anticipate immediate, strong promotional impact and a best seller, you'll need to adjust upward the number of copies you will be ordering.

5. Co-publishing Plans

Co-publishing is a cooperative venture between two publishers, a publisher and a non-publishing business, a publisher and an association, or a publisher and any other entity who has a manuscript ready for publication. There is a wide variety of configurations of co-publishing arrangements.

6. Level of Confidence

Your level of confidence in the book is a subjective factor. Ideally, you should have 100% confidence in each title you publish, but this isn't the reality. Experienced publishers develop an innate sense about their forthcoming titles. This innate sense sometimes helps the publisher predict the "winners" and "losers."

7. Cost-of-Capital

Cost-of-capital is where your financial experience and instinct comes into play. When you commit funds to a print run, you commit funds to inventory and reduce your working capital. If you need to borrow for short-term working capital, you incur the cost of borrowing: an interest rate several points above the prime rate.

Related to your cost-of-capital is the need for inventory control. A common problem shared by most book publishers is maintenance and payment for excessive inventory. When you calculate your print run, keep in mind that you can always reprint but you can't "unprint". New book publishers are shocked to realize that the only value their inventory has is the value they create through their marketing and promotion. Commodities such as steel, grain, or lumber are homogeneous products with a high degree of interchangeability and an ever-ready market - unlike books. Excessive inventory of unsuccessful books, for all practical purposes, is worthless. In some instances the cost of negotiating with dealers exceeds the nickel on a dollar you may receive when you remainder your books. You may pay dearly for your decision to over print.

8. Storage Space Availability/Cost

As you decide on the number of copies to order, consider the availability of the storage space in your warehouse or the cost of storage if you are working with a book fulfillment service.

9. Economic Quantity Order/Unit Cost

A low manufacturing cost should be factored into your calculations; however, you should not make a decision for a large first print order solely on such cost figures. If all other factors and variables indicate that you can sell a first printing within a "reasonable" time, then by all means order a large enough quantity to insure a price break. The economic quantity order is the amount that is optimum to your needs. It represents a unit manufacturing cost that fits within your budget, meets your sales projections, and of course accommodates your inventory space.

10. Reprinting/Turnaround

If you have done your homework and are aware of the techniques of dealing with book manufacturers, reprinting shouldn't be a major concern. Reprinting is not an undesirable situation if you have a dependable printer who will work with you to replenish your inventory. On an average, it takes from five to six weeks to reprint a paperbound and from six to eight weeks to reprint a case bound.

In deciding on the optimal number of copies to order, your publishing organization needs a prescribed decision-making process and an ultimate source of accountability. The number of copies to order on a first printing should be a consultative decision. Solicit other viewpoints in a "friendly-adversarial" environment. If the editorial department selects the number of copies, make sure that the sales department can sell that first printing within a reasonable time. By encouraging all viewpoints at your management table, you will create valuable checks and balances that will save you from making poor decisions.

Furthermore, one individual should be accountable for the first print order. The individual who determines the number of copies in the first printing will vary from organization to organization. One theory of decision-making says that the first print order is essentially a financial decision. I think the number of copies ordered should be the responsibility of the head of a small publishing company in consultation with various professionals. Responsibility should rest with whomever is accountable for the inventory cost. For example, if your sales manager is responsible for inventory, then make him or her the final decision maker. You cannot separate responsibility and accountability: select a decision maker who has accountability to different viewpoints and who understands all the variables.

There are a few hard and fast rules of how to order the first printing of a new book. For the most part, you'd be safe to order no more than you'll need for one year's disappearance.

One helpful rule is the worst-case/best-case scenario. Evaluate both scenarios; then, select a middle-ground sales forecast that leans toward conservatism and caution. Much of this analysis can be performed on spreadsheet software. (Ultimately, you can develop your own models on a spread sheet.)

A possible pitfall when calculating your first print order is an overly optimistic "pushy" author. Authors (and to a large extent editors) are too close to the work to give an objective opinion concerning realistic sales estimates. I do not encourage isolated decision-making; solicit input from authors and editors, but do not let an author become an active participant in the decision-chain.

Solicit feedback from the marketplace as you did when you prepared your sales forecast. Talk to your sales reps, distributors, booksellers, and librarians. Evaluate the marketplace with your friends and colleagues in your professional publishing organizations.

Determining the optimal number of copies in the first printing is an art, not a science. There are factors you can quantify; however a rigid model will not work for you if it's designed on the peculiarities of another publishing organization specializing in different markets. I urge you, as the head of your company, to take the lead and be responsible and accountable for the optimal first printing. Take this responsibility seriously! If you don't, ill-considered and excessive first printings can seriously jeopardize the success of your business.

About The Author

John B. McHugh is a publishing management consultant and industry commentator. He has held positions at Houghton Mifflin, Richard D. Irwin, and Wadsworth, Inc. At the American Society for Quality Control, McHugh served as Publisher and Director of Programs and Membership. He has also operated his own publishing company. McHugh's articles have appeared in Association Publishing, Association Trends, The Book Marketing Update, the COSMEP Newsletter, the PMA Newsletter and Small Press.

McHugh also consults on-site training workshops for publishers. For more information, fax or call:

John B. McHugh
5757 North Ames
Glendale, WI 53209
Phone - (414) 351-3056
Fax - (414) 351-0666

Publications by John McHugh

Permissions Management for Requesters and Granters: Dealing with Copyright and Fair Use

Book Publishing Contracts: An Introduction

Managing Book Acquisitions: An Introduction

College Publishing Market, 3rd Edition

Electronic Rights for Publishers: Protecting Your Interests